From the article:

“… a number of organizations that voted to abstain seem unenthused (and uncertain that it can actually be implemented), so this may not come to pass, especially on the timeline proposed here.”

The proposed target is 2029. It’s just a proposal. I don’t think “probably” is warranted.

questions I couldn’t answer for myself:

• who imposes these restrictions (not the CABF. browser vendor? OS? or some upper entity like whatwg?)
• who will be affected (selfhosted environments?)

With TLS certificates being close to free, or free, it seems like a good direction to go. Sure, nobody loves dealing with certs, but short expires help in safeguarding critical infrastructure identities. Seems like an overall positive change.