cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/39002052
China plays a key role in Russia’s war against Ukraine, supporting Russia while also being interested in preserving the semi-destroyed Russian economy. This allows Beijing to control the Russian economy and influence political processes in Moscow, according to Volodymyr Ohryzko, Director of the Centre for Russian Studies in Ukraine [and Ukraine’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs].
“China, through the words of its foreign minister, has said that it will not allow Russia to lose. Therefore, this means that China has been helping and will continue to help Russia wage war against Ukraine. It’s obvious and clear whose side China is on. On the other hand, will China help Russia too much? Here, I have huge doubts,” Ohryzko noted [on Espreso TV].
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Today China controls practically everything that happens in the Russian economy. It dictates the prices at which it buys or will buy goods from Russia now or in the future. Therefore, China needs a half-dead Russian economy that it can manage as it pleases and accordingly influence what happens in Moscow, according to Ohryzko.
“Thus, in this triangle of Beijing–Washington–Moscow, the last one (Russia, ed.) is a zero without a stick. It’s the third wheel, which will be invited to the table only when the key issues between the two serious players are resolved. That is, this is already obvious and clear to everyone,” Ohryzko remarked.
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The war in Ukraine also binds Western resources, which means they can not be used against China directly. Hence Trump wanting peace in Ukraine. However it also means the Europe is rearming, which creates military potential. This might very well turn into a highly intressting dynamic, if Ukraine wins the war. Since Trump largely stopped supporting Ukraine, the support would be mostly European. It also eliminates the biggest threat to Europe at least for a few years. So you end up with a massive military potential in Europe, which the US really would like to use against China. So the US turns from the protector of Europe into wanting Europe to send aid, if China starts some sort of war. Obviously Trump turning the US into a dictatorship does not help at all.
Having guaranteed buyers for your product is great for China. As long as the war goes on, they will be able to sell their goods to Russia at a price they see fit. They can saddle Russia with insane debt like a developing country. It could be very interesting to see Chinese be taught as the first foreign language in Russia as part of a deal.
Hopefully though, Western powers (and the US) will be able to supply enough to end the war or at least push back the Russians and secure the original borders. I do wonder just when that could happen.
If Russias economy is not doing great and inflation stays super high, China won’t be able to sell them much. As the Ruble drops, they buy even less. China doesn’t want a customer, they want a pawn to control, much like Russia has done with other countries, like Ukraine, in the past.
Shit. This is as much a result of Trump’s narcissism as it is Putin’s. And Xi’s too I guess.
I don’t like it either, but the USA used a strong hand for way too long to simply stop it from one day to another (or be as bad at it as they are now). See what happened in Afghanistan. This is global level shooting yourself in the foot.