Erica Chenoweth initially thought that only violent protests were effective. However after analyzing 323 movements the results were opposite of what Erica thought:
For the next two years, Chenoweth and Stephan collected data on all violent and nonviolent campaigns from 1900 to 2006 that resulted in the overthrow of a government or in territorial liberation. They created a data set of 323 mass actions. Chenoweth analyzed nearly 160 variables related to success criteria, participant categories, state capacity, and more. The results turned her earlier paradigm on its head — in the aggregate, nonviolent civil resistance was far more effective in producing change.
If campaigns allow their repression to throw the movement into total disarray or they use it as a pretext to militarize their campaign, then they’re essentially co-signing what the regime wants — for the resisters to play on its own playing field. And they’re probably going to get totally crushed.
Utter bullshit methodology. Reference: Benjamin Case, “Street Rebellions” (2022). Goes through the entire dataset of Chenoweth tangle of garbage. Case shows that every case of ‘civil resistance’ involved ‘non-violence’ of the order of UNARMED riots with punches, rocks, and fires were involved. So indeed, civil resistance with non-violent marches, barricades, punches, rocks, and fires have contributed social progress change of decomposing mass-murder militarists governments. Slinging such desctructive false claims is likely to be effective at de-mobilizing people confused about acceptability of burning down unoccupied parts of a genocide and pollution funding bank and military station (cop station), for example, and to have very serious consequences against authors of that sort of garbage. Another problem about Chenoweth’s methodology: they pretend intention of protesters of replacing a military hierarchist, heritage-based, fiction-book-based, racist pigs regime (asristocratic, ‘demo’-oligarchic, duopolist) with another regime of the same type of garbage with another shuffle of names and addresses. Even a cursory review of literature and interviews with real protesters has shown a lot of demand for flat local networks run by local competent persons, usually referred to under contested name space of words like anarchism, direct democracy, co-operative societies, etc.