cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/37781918
Russia has decided to classify data on the state of the economy and foreign trade as a state secret. From now on, only individual indicators that are favorable to the authorities will be disclosed in order to calm the public, UNIAN reported.
According to data from the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, serious crisis processes are observed in the coal mining, oil refining, construction, automotive and logistics industries of the Russian Federation, which in general provide about 17% of revenues to the federal budget.
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The EU extended sanctions against Russia for another six months.
Due to Moscow’s continued actions destabilizing the situation in Ukraine.
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The report comes as defense drives Russia’s industrial growth while civilian production contracts.
Russia’s industrial sector, fueled by the defense sector, grew by 1.6% in May and 1.8% over the last year after accounting for seasonal factors, state statistics service Rosstat has reported.
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Civilian industries have reported widespread contractions, leading analysts to warn that Russia’s economy has become disproportionately driven by the military-industrial complex in the fourth year of its invasion of Ukraine.
Tverdye Tsifr (“Hard Numbers”), a Telegram channel that reports on financial data, noted a 42% surge in the output of “miscellaneous transport equipment” and a 14% increase in finished metal products over the last month, compensating for weaker performance in March and April.
Clothing production increased by 12%, and production of electronic and optical products, computers and pharmaceuticals rose by 9%.
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Analysts from Russia’s largest private bank Alfa-Bank described the May results as evidence of a highly segmented economy.
Previously, “when civilian growth was weak and defense growth was robust, all sectors expanded to some degree,” wrote MMI, a Telegram channel that analyzes Russian and global microstatistics, of the new divergence between military and civilian industry.
“Now, all civilian industries have recorded declines, while defense output has accelerated. There are not enough resources to go around for everyone, so someone has to cut back,” it said.
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Rosstat reported that the producer price index for industrial goods shrank by 1.3% in May and by 2.8% since the start of the year.
A sustained decline in industrial prices, Promsvyazbank warned, “signals the real economy’s diminished resilience to high interest rates.”
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According to the government-affiliated CMACP analytical center, industrial growth has been mostly concentrated in the defense sector, with civilian industries remaining stagnant since mid-2023.
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It is not like the government doesn’t have the data. They just don’t publish it any more.
I think this will backfire, as uncertainty is a killer for investments and especially foreign investors that are unfazed by Western sanctions will not like the lack of information.