By 2030, AI will greatly outperform humans in some complex intellectual tasks. Discover how LLMs are doubling their capabilities every seven months.
By 2030, AI will greatly outperform humans in some complex intellectual tasks. Discover how LLMs are doubling their capabilities every seven months.
*with 50 percent reliability.
Heck of an asterisk on this claim.
That sounds like a coin flip, but 50% reliability can be really useful.
If a model has 50% chance of completing a task that would cost me an hour - and I can easily check it was completed correctly - on average, I’m saving half of the time it would take to complete this.
That said, exponentials don’t exist in the real world, we’re just seeing the middle of a sigmoid curve, which will soon yield diminishing returns.
All that power used for a fucking coin flip.